Canada may renounce Kyoto Protocol

It has been announced that Canada may pull out of its commitments to carbon emission reduction as it fears strong action could hinder its trade with the USA, to whom it does most of its international business. There is a split between countries thinking like Canada and nations that are pushing for a binding replacement to the Kyoto Protocol, which runs out at the end of next year.

The World Meteorological Organization also announced that 2011 is so far the 10th warmest year on record, still far above average but not quite on a par with some of the very warmest years seen in the last decade. This they say, is down to the current La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific, which can mask global warming in the years in which it dominates.

La Nina occurs when the eastern pacific has an influx of cold water at the surface, which has a surprising knock on effect around the world. This year there have been associated droughts in East Africa, the Pacific Islands and the Southern USA, whilst there has been flooding some western Pacific regions and southern Africa. El Nino, which is the inverse of La Nina, is usually associated with warmer years and tends to have opposite climate impacts as well, although the process is not completely understood.

The move from Canada however, throws the future of a binding climate agreement even further away from reality. It now looks extremely unlikely that an agreement can be reached before 2015, and there is now concern that so little progress, if any at all will be made in Durban.

Canada’s decision pulls it in line with the US, which is not a signatory to the Kyoto agreement, but could cause friction between it and developing nations, as well as Europe which supports a strict binding agreement. Russia and Japan have also said they will not make further cuts, but have not yet decided whether to formally withdraw or not.

It is known that emissions need to peak and decline dramatically by 2020 to prevent exceeding a two degree target.