ETC says countries can triple climate ambition by COP30

In its latest briefing, Credible Contributions: Bolder Plans for Higher Climate Ambition in the Next Round of NDCs, the ETC calls for industry and government collaboration to raise the ambition of the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by COP30. If we are to limit the impact of climate change, NDCs can and must reflect technical potential and reinforce existing progress by setting more ambitious targets with stronger links to national policies.  

Since the Paris Agreement was signed at COP21, countries are required to submit and ratchet up national climate pledges every five years. These NDCs, as they are known, serve as high-level roadmaps for national climate action by establishing targets for emissions reductions over 10-year periods. Success in the low-carbon transition to date has been driven by industry’s response to government targets – accelerating deployment and driving down costs. Industry recognises the opportunity in the next round of NDCs and calls on governments to prioritise delivering high-ambition NDCs which will provide certainty, unlock investment and accelerate technology deployment. 

Global greenhouse gas emissions are currently at an all-time high (~59 GtCO2e)1 and continue to rise. If fully achieved, current NDC targets set in 2020 are only expected to deliver ~6 GtCO2e of emissions savings per year by 2035. This figure is far from the ~23-30 GtCO2e reduction required by 2035 for a 1.5°C-aligned pathway. 

According to the ETC, if governments reflect existing policy commitments made at COP28 and nationally and the latest technological progress in the next round of NDCs, overall ambition levels could almost triple. This would achieve ~18 GtCO2e of mitigation per year in 2035 and put the world on a trajectory to limit warming to 2°C. 

Rapid progress is being made. Many core technologies of the energy transition have already reached tipping points for self-reinforcing growth and strong national policies support the acceleration of manufacturing and deployment around the world. For example, new wind and solar installations now meet over 90% of global power demand growth. Electric vehicles now make up 18% of global passenger vehicle sales and as much as 20% and 40% of sales in Europe and China respectively. 

“Industry has rapidly scaled up manufacturing and deployment of clean energy technologies with existing policy support and commitments. Higher ambition in the next round of NDCs at COP30 has the potential to reinforce and accelerate this positive feedback loop.” Adair Turner, Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission. 

Faster progress will be required in halting deforestation, phasing out coal from the power system and accelerating project delivery in hard-to-abate industry and transport. 

“The next round of national climate plans – NDCs 3.0 – are due from early next year and will be among some of the most important policy documents produced so far this century. As the Energy Transitions Commission report underscores” Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). 

Higher ambition from government and industry is needed to stimulate accelerated deployment of clean energy technologies, but ambition alone will not deliver progress. The ETC recommends that “NDCs 3.0” define: 

• roadmaps for implementation of accelerated climate action backed by strong government policy 
• targets for emissions reductions 
• investable plans clearly stating the investment and international climate finance required to deliver stated targets. 

“We welcome the ETC’s recommendations for NDCs 3.0 and urge governments to engage with the private sector to inform the development of policy roadmaps and investment plans within their NDCs.” Peter Bakker, President & CEO of WBCSD. 

Priorities will differ by country but the ETC’s briefing highlights that for all countries, whatever their level of ambition, a step change in ambition is possible in the next round of NDCs. Backing NDCs with detailed transition plans can unlock the investment and industry action required to achieve these aims. 

Find out more here.