Farming and land could be UK’s largest source of emissions in little more than a decade

New analysis of government data by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) shows that progress on emissions reductions for farming and land use is significantly off target.

Progress lags behind other sectors to such an extent that it is possible the sector could be the biggest emitter by the middle of the 2030s. Figures show that it is likely that this year agriculture and land use leapfrogged electricity generation to be the fourth biggest emitter, after domestic transport, buildings and industry.

Although the rate of progress towards woodland creation in England improved last year, up to 4550ha in the year to March 2024, from 3130ha the previous year, this is still well short of the target to plant 7500ha of new woodland by 2025. And the percentage of farmers engaged in low carbon farming practices such as energy efficiency and improving the efficiency of manure and slurry management has gone backwards, down to 48% from a high of 66% in 2020, and from 53% in 2023, after a lack of focus on the target and confusion over the support available. The target for 2025 is 70%, and for 2037 is 85% of farmers.

Commenting on the analysis, Tom Lancaster, land food and farming analyst at ECIU said, “There is a tragic irony in farmers’ harvests, revenues and the UK’s food self-sufficiency falling due to a winter which climate change made wet in the extreme, and the sector’s own emissions remaining high for at least the last decade. The UK’s farms and land could well be releasing more greenhouse gas emissions than its power stations. Look ahead another decade and the UK’s land, including agriculture, could be our number one source of emissions.

“It doesn’t have to be this way. Farming is the only sector that can absorb as well as emit greenhouse gases. This is in part why the new green farming support system is so important, because it will help and incentivise farmers to bring down emissions and sequester carbon, while at the same time improving soil health, planting trees and hedgerows that make crops and livestock more resilient to flooding and extreme heat. As the new government considers the upcoming Climate Change Committee progress report, it will need to move quickly to bring forward policies that are capable of making up for lost time. What is clear is that the next five years are make or break for the contribution farming and land use can make towards net zero by 2050, given the time it takes for soils and peatlands to recover and trees to grow.”

Recent analysis by ECIU estimated that the arable harvest this year could be down by as much as a fifth as the record breaking wet winter – made worse by climate change – waterlogged soils and flooded farmland, preventing farmers from drilling their crops.

As well as falling short on woodland creation and going into reverse on low carbon farming, efforts to restore England’s peatlands are also behind target. The last government set an aim of 35,000ha of peatland under restoration by the end of the Parliament. Although up to date figures are not available, based on the previously reported rates and trends it is likely that this target has been missed by around 14,000-15,000ha. This would add an area the size of Cardiff [5] to the missed woodland targets, themselves amounting to an area the size of Birmingham. 

With the Carbon Budget Delivery Plan setting a target for 14,000ha of new peatland to be under restoration each year from 2025, it is clear that a step change in delivery will now be needed to prevent England falling even further behind the trajectory needed to reach the governments ultimate target of 280,000ha under restoration by 2050.

Given this lack of progress across the board, and absence of current policies to address this, it is possible that agriculture and land use could be the biggest emitting sector of the economy by around 2036, as emissions from other sectors fall in response to policies such as the Zero Emissions Vehicles mandate and Clean Heat Market Mechanism.

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