How extreme heat is shaping how Europeans think and vote on climate

Extreme heat doesn’t just affect our health and our homes. A new study suggests it also changes how people think about climate change and how they vote.

Published this week in the journal PNAS, the study analysed survey data from 25 European countries between 2012 and 2022. It’s the first study of its kind at this scale and it looks at how personal experience of unusually high temperatures relates to climate attitudes and voting in national elections.

The study found that after unusually hot spells, people were more likely to:

- Feel responsible for climate change
- Worry about its effects
- Support Green parties, or parties planning to form a coalition with them before an election

Co-author Jonas Peisker of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) says this suggests that climate impacts are shaping real political decisions, in addition to raising awareness.

The effects weren’t the same for everyone. Women and people with higher levels of education already showed stronger pro-environment attitudes and higher support for Green parties. The biggest shift was seen in less-educated men who showed the largest changes in attitude and Green party support after extreme weather.

The authors say climate communication should focus on the real-world impacts of climate change, such as how it will impact our daily lives, especially for groups who are less engaged. They also argue for support for regions that are disadvantaged in the transition away from fossil fuels. Without it, economic inequalities could weaken public backing for climate policy.

As co-author Roman Hoffmann explains, residents of such regions already tend to be less concerned about the environment, and widening inequalities risks pushing them further away.

With more extreme weather expected, understanding how people respond could help policymakers build support for the transition that works for everyone, not only those already convinced.