IEA’s “golden age of gas” is no silver-bullet for climate change

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that natural gas could play a much greater part in the global energy mix in future, but that it will not significantly reduce the possibility of further global warming.

An IEA report, “Are we entering a global age of gas?” suggests that unused resources of natural gas will be used enthusiastically by growing markets with a huge hunger for energy, particularly China. The reluctance to adopt nuclear power following the Fukushima disaster in Japan will also cause increased use of the fossil fuel.

It could also lead to a decrease in low-carbon energy as natural gas out-competes renewables and nuclear.

Currently, natural gas accounts for around 23 per cent of energy use worldwide. The IEA report presents a scenario where gas use rises by more than 50 per cent of 2010 levels and accounts for more than a quarter of global energy demand by 2035.

The scenario predicted by the IEA, with natural gas as a much greater part of the worldwide energy mix, would not be enough to stop an average global temperature rise of more than 2°C by 2050.

IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said “while natural gas is the ‘cleanest’ fossil fuel, it is still a fossil fuel. Its increased use could muscle out low-carbon fuels, such as renewables and nuclear.”

However the report and its findings are based on a scenario which could be described as unlikely. The IEA’s “high-gas scenario” predicts that China implements an ambitious gas use policy and its natural gas demand rises dramatically from the level it is at now. Currently China is roughly equal with levels of use in Germany but under this IEA scenario gas use will rise to match the demand of the entire European Union by 2035.

The increase in natural gas envisioned in the report will concern environmental campaigners because of the way in which it is produced. The IEA estimate that unconventional gas resources, such as shale gas, are as large a store as conventional sources. However, hydraulic fracturing or “fracking” is a controversial method of extracting unconventional gas such as shale gas.

Fracking is used to extract shale gas from rock, by injecting chemicals, water and sand into the rock-formation under high-pressure.

A recent bout of fracking in Blackpool caused a small earthquake in Lancashire. The practice was also banned by French politicians in May of this year. Research published in the US claims that the extraction process releases much more greenhouse gas into the environment than using other fossil fuels.

The study in Climatic Change, said: “Compared to coal, the footprint of shale gas is at least 20 per cent greater and perhaps twice as great on the 20 year horizon and is comparable over 100 years.”

While natural gas provides a cleaner alternative than other fossil fuels, the report still highlights “the need for a greater shift to low-carbon energy sources, increased energy efficiency and deployment of new technologies including carbon capture and storage”.

The “golden age of gas” is certainly no silver bullet solution to climate change.

Image: Tod Baker | Flickr