The US Election- What Does It Mean For COP29?

Climate action in the wake of the US Presidential Election  

As Donald Trump becomes President-Elect, global climate leaders reflect on what impact the US elections will have on the necessary political will to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement.  

Most notably, in a repeat from his previous term in 2016, it is anticipated that Donald Trump will pull the US - one of the most polluting countries in the world - out of the historic climate treaty agreed in 2015. 

Just over four years ago, on 4 November 2020, the US officially withdrew from the Paris Agreement, only to be re-entered into by Joe Biden, in February 2021. The delay in action caused by this decision is not affordable by a world expected to see a 3.1°C  temperature rise over the next century, with current policies, let alone with stripped back policies from the US.  

The Biden Administration that followed Trump’s first term as President saw a sharp increase in clean energy investments, largely as a result of the landmark Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which enhanced or created a variety of tax incentives for clean energy and manufacturing. 

Since the beginning of 2021, over $700bn of clean investment occurred in the US, increasing year-on-year with $284bn in investment in the past year, according to the Clean Investment Monitor. During the four years 16GW of commercial-scale offshore wind  projects were approved, up from an initial zero. Trump stated he will completely repeal the IRA during his campaign, which BloombergNEF estimates will result in a 17% drop in new renewable capacity additions from 2025 to 2035.  

The message from business is clear; policy uncertainty knocks investor confidence. Clear directions from government inspire investor confidence, as evidenced by the surge the clean energy sector has seen in the US in recent years. 

Amplifying the case for climate action at COP29 

This significant result comes less than a week before the start of the UN’s official climate talks at COP29 which will rely on developed countries, such as the US, in increasing their commitment to scale up finance for climate action in developing countries.  

The next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0), required by the Paris Agreement, are to be submitted by February. COP29 is intended to serve as a vehicle for raising ambition in these national climate plans, yet the US’ expected policy shift to diverge from such plans may hamper these efforts.  

This raises the urgency of rallying climate action around the scientific basis. The series of catastrophic extreme weather events that have occurred globally this year send a strong message, human activities are accelerating the natural rate of climate change and exponential rates of biodiversity loss, putting pressure on Earth’s natural self-balancing systems. The environmental, economic and social impacts are palpable.  

This is a moment for the global climate community to strengthen and mobilise action, a time to show that climate and nature-positive policy translates into strong economic and social policy.

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