UK off track for Net Zero, say country’s climate advisors

Today, the Climate Change Committee published its 2024 Progress Report to Parliament. Its assessment is that only a third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the country’s 2030 target, the first one set in line with a Net Zero trajectory, are currently covered by credible plans.

However, there is a positive with the country’s emissions now less than half the levels they were in 1990. This is largely due to the phase out of coal and the success of ramping up renewables. Now more ambitious action is needed across transport, buildings, industry and agriculture for further decarbonisation. The report suggests that plans in place from the previous Government will not deliver enough action.

Despite the availability of much of the low carbon technology needed, its scale up and roll out is off track, according to the indicators included in the report. By 2030:

• Annual offshore wind installations must increase by at least three times, onshore wind installations will need to double and solar installations must increase by five times.
• Approximately 10% of existing homes in the UK will need to be heated by a heat pump, compared to only approximately 1% today.
• The market share of new electric cars needs to increase from 16.5% in 2023 to nearly 100%.

The Committee urges the new Government to address uncertainty around the country’s commitment to Net Zero, caused by the previous Government’s policy rollbacks. The ten priority recommendations put forward by the Committee are:

• Make electricity cheaper. Removing policy costs from electricity prices will support industrial electrification and ensure the lower running costs of heat pumps compared to fossil-fuel boilers are reflected in household bills.
• Reverse recent policy rollbacks. Remove the exemption of 20% of households from the 2035 fossil-fuel boiler installation phase-out, address the gap left by removing obligations on landlords to improve the energy efficiency of rented homes and reinstate the 2030 phase-out of new fossil-fuel car and van sales. The damage of these rollbacks can be limited by quickly reinstating these policies.
• Remove planning barriers for heat pumps, electric vehicle charge points and onshore wind.
• Introduce a comprehensive programme for decarbonisation of public sector buildings.
• Effectively design and implement the upcoming renewable energy CfD auctions. Ensure funding and auction design for the Sixth and Seventh Allocation Rounds are appropriate to deliver at least 50 GW of offshore wind by 2030.
• Accelerate electrification of industrial heat. Strengthen the UK Emissions Trading Scheme to ensure that its price is sufficient to incentivise decarbonisation and that support is available for a rapid transition to electric heat across much of industry.
• Ramp up tree planting and peatland restoration. Tree planting must be scaled up in the 2020s for abatement to be sufficient for later carbon budgets and Net Zero. There must be no more delays to addressing the barriers to delivery.
• Finalise business models for large-scale deployment of engineered removals. Finalise and open to the market the business models for engineered removals.
• Publish a strategy to support skills. Support workers in sectors which need to grow or transition and in communities that may be adversely impacted.
• Strengthen NAP3 with a vision that sets clear objectives and targets and reorganise government adaptation policy. Adaptation must become a fundamental aspect of policymaking across all departments and be integrated into other national policy objectives.

The Committee will publish its advice on the Seventh Carbon Budget and an updated path to Net Zero early in 2025. Find out more here.