UNEP, UNFCCC and WMO reports spark urgency as COP29 approaches
During the UN’s Biodiversity Summit and ahead of COP29, three key reports published by UNEP, UNFCCC and WMO serve to induce action, as they draw light on the fact that existing NDCs are inadequate, and continuation of current policies will lead to a global temperature rise of up to 3.1°C, with greenhouse gas levels reaching a new record in 2023.
As almost 200 countries are gathered for the final week of the UN Biodiversity Conference (COP16) in the tropical city of Cali, Colombia, the effects of global warming on the continent are intensifying. Rivers in the Amazon basin fell to record-low levels in October 2024 as drought gripped vast areas of South America.
As the High-Level Segment of the conference commences, bringing together Heads of States, Governments, Ministers and other relevant stakeholders, one key topic is the inseparability of climate change and biodiversity loss challenges. Linking the political agendas of climate and biodiversity from COP 16 to UNFCCC COPs 29 and 30 will be vital moving forward.
Informing climate talks with the science
Last week, the UN Environment Programme launched its Emissions Gap Report 2024 in Cali. It assesses the latest scientific studies on current and estimated future greenhouse gas emissions, comparing them with the emission levels permissible for the world to progress on a least-cost pathway to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The report underlines that it is still technically possible to meet the 1.5°C goal, but only with a G20-led massive global mobilisation to cut all greenhouse gas emissions, starting imminently.
According to the report, nations must collectively commit to cutting 42% off annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0), paired with delivering action urgently, or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be unachievable within a few years. Currently, climate commitments are not being met, putting the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over the course of this century. Even if they are met, temperature rise would be limited to 2.6-2.8°C, still bringing debilitating impacts to people, planet and economies. This is reiterated by yesterday’s (28 October) 2024 NDC Synthesis Report, published by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The report also looks at what is needed to limit global warming to below 2°C. For this pathway, emissions must fall 28% by 2030 and 37% from 2019 levels by 2035 – the new milestone year to be included in NDCs 3.0.
“Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges – or the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead and well below 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “I urge every nation: no more hot air, please. Use the upcoming COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to increase action now, set the stage for stronger NDCs, and then go all-out to get on a 1.5°C pathway.
“Even if the world overshoots 1.5°C – and the chances of this happening are increasing every day – we must keep striving for a net-zero, sustainable and prosperous world. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot.”
Further, the annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, a complementary report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), a specialised agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation in atmospheric science and meteorology, launched yesterday.
It reports on greenhouse gas concentrations, rather than on emission levels, showing greenhouse gas levels surged to a new record in 2023, with carbon dioxide (CO2) accumulating in the atmosphere faster than any time experienced during human existence, rising by more than 10% in just two decades.
“Another year. Another record. This should set alarm bells ringing among decision makers. We are clearly off track to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
As COP16 strives to emphasise, the effectiveness of carbon sinks, such as forests cannot be taken for granted. From the WMO report, analysis of data shows that just under half of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere. Just over one quarter are absorbed by the ocean and just under 30% by land ecosystems – although there is considerable year-to-year variability due to naturally occurring phenomena like El Niño and La Niña. In the course of 2023, large vegetation fire CO2 emissions and a possible reduction in carbon absorption by forests, combined with stubbornly high fossil fuel CO2 emissions from human and industrial activities, drove the increase. During El Niño years, greenhouse gas levels tend to rise because drier vegetation and forest fires reduce the efficiency of land carbon sinks.
“The Bulletin warns that we face a potential vicious cycle. Natural climate variability plays a big role in carbon cycle. But in the near future, climate change itself could cause ecosystems to become larger sources of greenhouse gases. Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, whilst the warmer ocean might absorb less CO2. Consequently, more CO2 could stay in the atmosphere to accelerate global warming. These climate feedbacks are critical concerns to human society,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin is one of WMO’s flagship publications released to inform the UN Climate Change conference, taking place shortly in Baku.
COP29 and the Climate Action Innovation Zone
The conversations starting on 11 November in Azerbaijan’s capital must spur ambitious and immediate action. UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell on the release of the NDC Synthesis report 2024 stated:
“COP29 is a vital moment in the world’s climate fight, and today’s data is a blunt reminder of why COP29 must stand and deliver.
Governments must come to Baku ready to convert the pledges in the UAE Consensus at COP28 – tripling renewables, the global goal on adaptation, transitioning away from all fossil fuels – into real-world, real-economy results, protecting people and their livelihoods everywhere.
COP29 must be an enabling COP, delivering concrete and ambitious outcomes on climate finance that take account of developing country needs, recognising that such support is core business to protect every nation and the global economy from rampaging climate impacts.”
From 13-15 November, the Climate Action Innovation Zone in Baku will drive transformative climate action at speed and scale, by facilitating cross sector collaboration, partnerships, capacity building and problem solving across the innovation ecosystem of technology and solution providers, investors, governments, cities and change makers.
To find out more about the Emissions Gap Report 2024: here
To find out more about the WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin: here
To find out more about the NDC Synthesis Report 2024: here
